Bitcoin extended its positive run last week with a minor 1% weekly gain, marking its fourth straight weekly advance for the first time since April. Even so, the rally showed signs of losing momentum after a sharp midweek reversal weakened buying pressure.
The cryptocurrency climbed to a weekly high of $67,000 on Tuesday before dropping 5% as short-term holders sold near their breakeven level. The decline reinforced resistance overhead and showed that buyers are still struggling to push Bitcoin beyond its recent trading range.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the short-term holder cost basis has stabilized near $68,500. The metric had gradually moved closer to spot prices over the past month. Analysts said this level has become a key resistance area that will likely require stronger demand for Bitcoin to break above it.
So far, that demand has remained limited despite recent ETF inflows. The report said institutional participation continues to weaken. Specifically, CME Bitcoin futures fell below $6 billion, while options reached a September 2023 low.
ETF flows also reflected that softer demand beneath the surface. Despite this, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million. However, they also saw $465.2 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday, while BlackRock’s IBIT turned net negative.
Another sign of softer institutional participation is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained below zero for more than 60 consecutive trading days. Bitfinex described current market conditions as a typical summer slowdown, with 30-day spot trading volumes at just 62.4% of their yearly average.
Beyond weaker market activity, broader economic conditions are adding uncertainty to Bitcoin’s outlook. Rising US diesel prices continue to pressure transport and production costs, raising the risk that inflation could remain elevated.
Meanwhile, higher inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path, while futures markets assign about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.
The report also noted that the US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, approaching a level that could pressure risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $63,000 and $68,500, awaiting stronger demand or fresh catalysts.
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
比特币连续四周上涨，但上周涨幅仅1%，且从$67,000高点回落5%，显示反弹动能明显减弱。短期持有者成本线$68,500已成为关键阻力，突破难度加大。
📊 市场影响
短期买盘力量不足，若$65,000支撑失守，可能引发新一轮回调。中短期内比特币大概率继续在$62,000-$68,500区间震荡，方向选择需等待新催化剂。
💡 操作建议
建议观望为主，不宜追高。若价格回落至$63,000附近可轻仓试探，但需严格止损。关注$68,500能否放量突破，否则反弹即是减仓机会。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。