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More →Brazil’s Stock Market Crashes After Lula’s Upset Victory
Brazil’s stock market lost more than $200 billion in value at the open on Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff, a result that prediction markets had priced at roughly a one in five chance. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, a basket of Brazilian stocks that trades in New York like a single share, fell as much as 26% from Friday’s close of about $42.60, touching $31.40 before trimming the loss to about 23% at $32.84 by 10:38 a.m. ET. That is memecoin-sized volatility for a fund built around Brazil’s biggest companies, and it leaves EWZ roughly where it started 2026 after a 34% gain through Friday. The dollar rose as much as 12% against the real on Friday, while the Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell as much as 17% to about 170,000 points. For a dollar-based investor, those moves at their worst combine to a loss of about 26%, in line with the ETF’s low. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10% from Friday’s close, its first circuit breaker since the COVID-19 pandemic. A circuit breaker is an automatic pause meant to slow panic selling, but the index kept sliding after trading resumed. Investors had been positioning for the opposite result since Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The Ibovespa jumped 7.85% the next day and EWZ gained more than 10% on bets that Bolsonaro would tighten public finances and open the way to lower interest rates. Monday’s drop erased that rally and, at its lows, left the Ibovespa about 11% below its Oct. 2 close. But Lula didn’t just beat Bolsonaro, he also beat prediction markets. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an<a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2114003200017575948" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS">> 82% chance</a> of winning the day before the vote, and Kalshi had him near 80% on Sunday morning. Both platforms are<a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS" rel="nofollow"> prediction markets</a>, where a contract that pays $1 if a candidate wins trades at 80 cents when traders see an 80% chance. Polling pointed to a coin flip rather than a favorite, with the latest Datafolha survey tied at 50% each among valid votes and CNT/MDA showing Bolsonaro ahead 50.5% to 49.5% in mid-October. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he does not recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul the election, after pledging in August to respect the outcome. He objected to Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting until 7 p.m. at the request of Lula’s campaign, which he said changed the rules midgame. His own campaign had separately asked for extr
International crude oil prices rose by about 1% during the day.
CoinWorld data: International crude oil prices rose about 1% during the day. WTI crude oil rose more than 1.00% intraday and is now reported at $101.57 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.8% to $111.31 per barrel.
Pertamina seeks crude oil and condensate for Q1 2027 through tender.
CoinWorld news, according to Reuters, Pertamina Patra Niaga, the commercial and trading arm of Indonesia's state oil company Pertamina, is seeking to purchase crude oil and condensate for delivery between January and March 2027. According to the tender document, the company is seeking crude oil cargoes for delivery to its refineries in Cilacap and Balikpapan, as well as the Balongan and TPPI Tuban petrochemical complexes. Bids must be submitted by November 2 and remain valid until November 6.
Consumer confidence falls to a 13-year low after the riots in France.
According to data released by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) on Tuesday, France's consumer confidence index plunged 5 points to 80 in October, hitting a new low since 2013. French households have been hit hard by multiple shocks, including the bond market sell-off and protests that escalated into riots. The figure not only fell below the median estimate of 85 in a Bloomberg survey, but was also lower than the forecasts of all economists. Persistent inflation and political and budgetary instability have kept the index hovering below its long-term average of 100 for the past five years. In addition, the survey showed that the proportion of households expecting prices to rise over the next 12 months increased.
German Chancellor Merz: If the US, Russia, or other countries attempt to reach an understanding without Ukraine's participation, that would be absolutely unacceptable.
CoinWorld news, German Chancellor Merz: If the US, Russia and other countries attempt to reach an understanding without Ukraine's participation, that would be absolutely unacceptable.
OKX announces the listing of 4 tokens including CEG perpetual futures, BAC perpetual futures, and IBKR perpetual futures.
According to CoinWorld news, OKX has announced that it will add 4 tokens including ceg contracts, bac contracts, and ibkr contracts to multiple services, including futures contracts, which will officially launch at 18:00 (UTC+8) on October 27, 2026. Note: The ceg, bac, ibkr, and mpwr perpetual contracts will be launched in batches between 18:00 and 18:45 on October 27, 2026. The funding fee settlement cycle for the contracts is 8 hours. If the rate reaches the upper or lower limit, the settlement frequency will automatically adjust to once per hour. The availability of tokens or products is subject to regional restrictions. Please confirm in the app whether your region is supported.
The $637 billion bill behind Anthropic's IPO
According to Bijie.com, Anthropic's IPO comes with a $637 billion bill, including: Broadcom $161.2 billion, SpaceX $120.5 billion, Google $114.5 billion, Amazon $110 billion, Microsoft $44.9 billion, Nscale $44.6 billion, and Lambda $41.3 billion. At its second-quarter revenue rate of $11.6 billion per quarter, it would take Anthropic about 14 years to cover this bill.
Exchange-traded product options Put/Call ratio reported at 1.09
CoinWorld US stock data: The put/call ratio for exchange-traded product options is 1.09, with put option trading volume higher than call option volume on the day. Compared with the same-caliber snapshot 7 days ago, it decreased by 0.08.
Zhipu is handing out free eggs again: you can claim 300 million GLM-5.3-Flash tokens every day.
CoinWorld news: Zhipu announced today that its AI programming tool Zcode will provide each user with 300 million GLM-5.3-Flash tokens free of charge every day. However, these "eggs" can only be used within Zcode, and are available for only 10 hours each day. Users need to start claiming them at 19:00 Beijing time each day, and can only use them from 23:00 to 09:00 the next day. Users need to update the client, and after claiming the quota, switch to "global building" and select the GLM-5.3-Flash model.
Investment banks: The Philippine central bank may raise interest rates one more time before pausing.
According to a report from Bijie.com, Maybank economists stated in a report that the Philippine central bank may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% in December, then pause rate hikes and keep rates unchanged until the end of 2027. Since the beginning of this year, the Philippine central bank has raised rates four times, with a cumulative increase of 125 basis points. Economists pointed out that the lagged effects of monetary tightening are suppressing domestic demand in the Philippines. Although the Philippine central bank has not ruled out further monetary tightening if inflation risks intensify, weak economic growth may limit the room for further policy adjustments in the future.