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More →Brazil’s Stock Market Crashes After Lula’s Upset Victory
Brazil’s stock market lost more than $200 billion in value at the open on Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff, a result that prediction markets had priced at roughly a one in five chance. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, a basket of Brazilian stocks that trades in New York like a single share, fell as much as 26% from Friday’s close of about $42.60, touching $31.40 before trimming the loss to about 23% at $32.84 by 10:38 a.m. ET. That is memecoin-sized volatility for a fund built around Brazil’s biggest companies, and it leaves EWZ roughly where it started 2026 after a 34% gain through Friday. The dollar rose as much as 12% against the real on Friday, while the Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell as much as 17% to about 170,000 points. For a dollar-based investor, those moves at their worst combine to a loss of about 26%, in line with the ETF’s low. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10% from Friday’s close, its first circuit breaker since the COVID-19 pandemic. A circuit breaker is an automatic pause meant to slow panic selling, but the index kept sliding after trading resumed. Investors had been positioning for the opposite result since Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The Ibovespa jumped 7.85% the next day and EWZ gained more than 10% on bets that Bolsonaro would tighten public finances and open the way to lower interest rates. Monday’s drop erased that rally and, at its lows, left the Ibovespa about 11% below its Oct. 2 close. But Lula didn’t just beat Bolsonaro, he also beat prediction markets. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an<a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2114003200017575948" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS">> 82% chance</a> of winning the day before the vote, and Kalshi had him near 80% on Sunday morning. Both platforms are<a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS" rel="nofollow"> prediction markets</a>, where a contract that pays $1 if a candidate wins trades at 80 cents when traders see an 80% chance. Polling pointed to a coin flip rather than a favorite, with the latest Datafolha survey tied at 50% each among valid votes and CNT/MDA showing Bolsonaro ahead 50.5% to 49.5% in mid-October. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he does not recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul the election, after pledging in August to respect the outcome. He objected to Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting until 7 p.m. at the request of Lula’s campaign, which he said changed the rules midgame. His own campaign had separately asked for extr
Wall Street banks and Blackstone are providing $63 billion in financing for Anthropic's purchase of Broadcom AI chips.
According to Reuters, Bank of America, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley will provide $63 billion in financing to procure Broadcom's AI chips and networking equipment for Anthropic. This is one of the largest debt deals related to AI computing infrastructure buildout. The companies involved said the transaction will be implemented through a newly established special purpose entity, which will purchase Broadcom's AI accelerator chips and networking equipment and then lease them to Anthropic, the developer of Claude. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley are arranging the first-lien mortgage financing, while Blackstone is providing the committed portion of the second-lien mortgage financing. Broadcom is providing "residual value support" to senior debt lenders, equivalent to offering a guarantee to lenders within this financing structure. The companies said the equipment is expected to begin delivery in 2027 and is part of a previously announced strategic computing supply agreement.
Anthropic files for IPO with the U.S. SEC, 95% probability of IPO.
Coin World news, Anthropic disclosed on Monday its Form S-1 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, giving investors their first critical look at the financial condition of this AI platform. Speculators on the prediction market platform Kalshi give a 95% probability that this AI giant will officially announce an initial public offering before the end of 2026. Kalshi defines "officially announce an IPO" as: the SEC declaring the S-1 effective, the IPO completing pricing, or an exchange assigning a trading ticker to the stock. On the Polymarket platform, traders believe there is a 69% probability that Anthropic will list on a public exchange and begin trading before November 20.
Bank of America and others jointly establish a $63 billion AI financing arrangement to support Anthropic.
Bank of America, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley jointly announced on Monday that they will establish a $63 billion artificial intelligence financing arrangement through a special purpose entity, with the funds to be used to purchase Broadcom's AI chips and networking equipment, which will then be leased to AI company Anthropic, which has just filed for an IPO. Previously, Apollo and Blackstone had reached an agreement with Broadcom to fund a $35 billion expansion of Anthropic's AI computing capacity.
South Korea's quarterly economic growth exceeded expectations, driven by a chip boom fueling exports and investment.
South Korea's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, driven by an AI-fueled chip boom that boosted exports and investment, providing grounds for further interest rate hikes, Yonhap reported, citing a report from Cailianshe on October 27. The Bank of Korea said Tuesday that gross domestic product rose 1% in the three months through September from the previous quarter, exceeding the median estimate of 0.8% by economists. The economy expanded 3.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, above the 3.1% forecast, following a 3.7% year-on-year increase in the second quarter. The stronger-than-expected growth further indicates that South Korea's chip boom is still driving economic expansion despite external headwinds such as the war in the Middle East. The Bank of Korea expects economic growth this year and next to be significantly higher than previously forecast, with updated economic projections scheduled for release on November 26.
South Korea is considering imposing an education tax on cryptocurrency exchanges.
CoinWorld news: South Korea is considering imposing an education tax on cryptocurrency exchanges.
AI boom drives export expansion, South Korea's economy grows 1% in the third quarter
According to a report by Bijie, preliminary estimates released by the Bank of Korea on Tuesday show that the economy grew 1.0% in the third quarter, higher than the market expectation of 0.7%. Exports rose 2.3% in the third quarter, driven mainly by strong shipments of semiconductors, machinery, and electrical equipment. As investment in chip manufacturing equipment increased, facility investment grew 4.1%. However, households reduced spending on goods and services, and private consumption fell 0.2%. Government consumption rose 1.9%. South Korean policymakers have listed inflation and the continued growth of household debt as major concerns. The Bank of Korea expects the economy to continue its upward trend and stated: "Driven by strong performance in the semiconductor industry, exports and investment are expected to maintain rapid growth, while the pace of consumption recovery may gradually accelerate."
Microsoft is offering voluntary buyout packages to about 60,000 employees.
BiJie Network News, according to ITHome, Microsoft on Monday local time launched a voluntary severance buyout program for about 60,000 employees to adapt to workforce restructuring in the AI era. Eligible employees include those at the vice president level and below in some teams in the United States, Canada, India, and the United Kingdom. Participating departments include Xbox, Windows, Copilot, and the finance department. Microsoft said the buyout program is intended to provide employees with more choices and help them plan their career paths, while also reducing headcount and avoiding the impact of large-scale layoffs.
The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 89.5%.
According to CoinWorld news, CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 89.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 10.5%. By December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 73.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 8.4%. The market has reached a high degree of consensus that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, and the policy path is in an extremely stable expectation range, with no unexpected shift in monetary policy expected in the short term.
Brazil's 10-year government bond yield surged 275 basis points in a single day to nearly 16%.
CoinWorld news, according to Cointelegraph, Brazil's 10-year government bond yield surged nearly 275 basis points in a single day to nearly 16% after Lula's unexpected re-election. In addition, the Brazilian real depreciated by about 12% against the US dollar, and the Ministry of Finance canceled this week's bond auction.