Bitcoin NUPL metric data suggested that BTC price action should make new cycle lows in order to preserve historical patterns.
Bitcoin (BTC) has further to fall for one of its “cleanest cycle clocks” to signal a bear-market bottom, new analysis says.
In research published on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged an incoming profitability floor for the BTC supply.
The onchain metric involved was Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures the portion of the supply being held at a higher or lower price versus that at which it last moved. Its score is currently 0.158, a level last seen in early 2023.
“Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain,” contributor TheChessOnChain commented.
An accompanying chart shows the 100-day EMA of NUPL slowly trending toward cycle bottom levels below zero.
“Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022),” TheChessOnChain noted.
Bitcoin NUPL data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
At just above $60,000, BTC/USD corresponds to an NUPL 100-day EMA of 0.215, signalling plenty of room left to drop in order to match previous bear-market lows.
CryptoQuant acknowledged that NUPL has put in higher lows throughout Bitcoin’s history, meaning that even a trip below the zero line may not be essential.
“That leaves two paths,” it continued, describing the four extant zero-line crosses as a “pattern, not a law.”
No time frame was given for when the next bottom could occur, with CryptoQuant specifying the zero line as the “level to watch in the coming weeks.”
As Cointelegraph reported, multiple bear-market reversal signals have come from onchain sources in recent weeks, echoing 2022.
Related: $60.4K Becomes 'most important area': Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Despite these now locking in, market participants broadly expect new macro lows to enter before bulls regain the upper hand.
Last week, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. highlighted other supply data 📌 推荐交易所
欧意 | Binance | Bybit | Bitget | Gate.io
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
NUPL当前0.158，接近2023年初底部水平，若历史规律重演，BTC可能需跌至$58K甚至更低，才能确认真正的周期底部。📉
📊 市场影响
短期来看，NUPL指向市场盈利空间收窄，若失守$60K心理关口，可能引发多头踩踏加速下探。中周期仍需等待链上亏损量放大，才具备筑底条件。
💡 操作建议
建议观望为主，避免在NUPL未触底前盲目抄底。可关注$58K附近是否出现巨量链上转移或矿工投降信号，再考虑分批布局。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。