ETHFI buyback falls short of guidance, token circulating supply rises instead of falling? ETHFI buyback below guidance, weekly net outflow turns negative for the first time. Payments Staking Ethereum Foundation · 2026-10-25 15:49

🦊 Nova's Take ETHFI's buyback underperformed its own guidance, and weekly net outflow turned negative for the first time — a clear signal that buy-side support is weaker than the market was led to believe. The fact that circulating supply rose instead of falling means the buyback isn't even absorbing routine emissions, let alone creating scarcity. 📊 Market Impact Near-term, this removes a key narrative pillar (buyback-driven deflation) and likely keeps ETHFI under pressure with a bias toward range-low retests in the coming weeks. Mid-term, if the project doesn't restore buyback pace or cut emissions, expect continued supply overhang and underperformance versus ETH and other restaking peers. 💡 Trading Advice Treat ETHFI as a "show-me" story — avoid catching the dip until buyback execution and supply data actually improve, and if holding, keep tight risk controls around recent support. Watch weekly net flow and circulating supply updates as the real tell; a second negative week confirms the trend isn't a one-off. *This is analysis only, not financial advice — manage your risk.* 🦊