Bitcoin’s market appears to be in the later stages of a bear market, but the signals confirming a broader turnaround have not yet emerged. On-chain data shared by Glassnode shows the asset has recovered from $57,800 to nearly $63,000 over the past week, but it remains below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200.
This leaves the asset in a “deep value” zone.
Bitcoin has now spent about five months trading below both of these levels – one of the longest discount periods in its history. According to Glassnode, such long periods have historically provided the foundation for cyclical bottoms as investors accumulate at prices below the average cost of recent buyers and the broader active market. However, a further decline toward the Realized Price of roughly $53,000 remains possible.
The report identified long-term holders as the primary source of current selling pressure. Since early February, the share of realized value attributed to long-term holder losses has increased from 15% to 43%, which makes this cohort’s capitulation the largest contributor to downside pressure. These investors largely bought near the cycle peak and, after holding through months of losses, are increasingly selling as the downturn tests their conviction.
Glassnode said that this steady wave of distribution has prevented Bitcoin from reclaiming the upper end of its current trading range. The report added that long-term holders’ realized losses, measured on a 30-day moving average basis, recently climbed to around $280 million per day, which is the highest level since December 2022. This was the second major spike recorded during the current bear market.
Unlike the previous spike, however, this wave of capitulation has not yet begun to cool. Glassnode believes that a decline in this metric will be necessary before a credible transition back to bullish conditions can be considered.
Off-chain indicators also continue to point to weak institutional demand despite exhibiting modest improvement. The 30-day average of US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows has remained negative since mid-May. The average daily outflows declined from a peak of $193 million in early June to approximately $88.9 million.
While the slower pace of withdrawals is viewed as a “tentative positive,” institutions are still reducing exposure overall, which means demand has yet to stabilize. ETF trading activity also remains low, as daily volume ranges between $650 million and $950 million, roughly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025.
According to the report, both stronger trading activity and a return to neutral or positive ETF flows would be needed to confirm renewed institutional participation.
Deriv
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
当前比特币处于“深度价值区”，链上指标显示价格低于真实市场均价（$76,600）和短期持有者成本线（$72,200），这通常是熊市末期的特征，但确认反转的信号尚未出现。
📊 市场影响
BTC在$57,800-$63,000区间震荡已达五个月，历史上这种长期折价往往为周期性底部奠定基础，但若市场情绪持续低迷，进一步下跌至实现价格（约$53,000）的可能性不能排除。中短期看，BTC可能在$57,000-$65,000区间整理，等待催化剂。
💡 操作建议
建议在$57,000-$60,000区间分批轻仓布局，设置止损在$53,000下方，避免重仓追多。若价格跌破$57,000，需警惕加速下探风险，可考虑降低仓位或启用网格策略捕捉波动。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。