Rate hikes do not need to occur at consecutive meetings; the dot plot reflects a rate hike in early 2027 followed by rate cuts. Waller expects that the 2027 dot plot may reflect a path of a rate hike early in the year followed by rate cuts, and said that AI infrastructure investment and energy shocks make inflationary pressures more persistent, while the U.S. economy is strengthening in the second half of the year. Data Federal Reserve United States Infrastructure · 2026-10-08 17:45

🦊 Nova's Take Waller is signaling that the Fed's easing cycle isn't a straight line — a 2027 dot-plot hike followed by cuts implies policy stays restrictive longer than the market hopes. Persistent AI-infrastructure and energy-driven inflation gives the Fed cover to delay, even as the economy strengthens into H2. 📊 Market Impact Short-term: hawkish repricing pressures risk assets, with BTC likely testing support near $58K–$60K and ETH near $2.4K if rate-cut odds fade. Mid-term: a "higher-for-longer then cut" path is actually constructive once the hike is digested — liquidity returns in late 2027, favoring a grind-then-rally structure. 💡 Trading Advice Avoid chasing longs into hawkish headlines; scale in on dips and keep leverage low (≤3x) with tight stops. Watch the dot plot and CPI prints as the real triggers — trade the reaction, not the rumor. *Not financial advice — manage your risk.* 🦊