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More →Brazil’s Stock Market Crashes After Lula’s Upset Victory
Brazil’s stock market lost more than $200 billion in value at the open on Monday after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s runoff, a result that prediction markets had priced at roughly a one in five chance. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, ticker EWZ, a basket of Brazilian stocks that trades in New York like a single share, fell as much as 26% from Friday’s close of about $42.60, touching $31.40 before trimming the loss to about 23% at $32.84 by 10:38 a.m. ET. That is memecoin-sized volatility for a fund built around Brazil’s biggest companies, and it leaves EWZ roughly where it started 2026 after a 34% gain through Friday. The dollar rose as much as 12% against the real on Friday, while the Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, fell as much as 17% to about 170,000 points. For a dollar-based investor, those moves at their worst combine to a loss of about 26%, in line with the ETF’s low. B3, the São Paulo exchange, halted trading for 30 minutes after the Ibovespa fell 10% from Friday’s close, its first circuit breaker since the COVID-19 pandemic. A circuit breaker is an automatic pause meant to slow panic selling, but the index kept sliding after trading resumed. Investors had been positioning for the opposite result since Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished first in the Oct. 4 first round, with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. The Ibovespa jumped 7.85% the next day and EWZ gained more than 10% on bets that Bolsonaro would tighten public finances and open the way to lower interest rates. Monday’s drop erased that rally and, at its lows, left the Ibovespa about 11% below its Oct. 2 close. But Lula didn’t just beat Bolsonaro, he also beat prediction markets. Polymarket gave Bolsonaro an<a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2114003200017575948" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS">> 82% chance</a> of winning the day before the vote, and Kalshi had him near 80% on Sunday morning. Both platforms are<a href="https://decrypt.co/resources/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 dJryYS" rel="nofollow"> prediction markets</a>, where a contract that pays $1 if a candidate wins trades at 80 cents when traders see an 80% chance. Polling pointed to a coin flip rather than a favorite, with the latest Datafolha survey tied at 50% each among valid votes and CNT/MDA showing Bolsonaro ahead 50.5% to 49.5% in mid-October. Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he does not recognize the result and will ask the courts to annul the election, after pledging in August to respect the outcome. He objected to Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting until 7 p.m. at the request of Lula’s campaign, which he said changed the rules midgame. His own campaign had separately asked for extr
The long-short ratio of ETH whale accounts is 3.1017.
CoinWorld data: The latest 4-hour snapshot for ETHUSDT shows that among the top 20% of margin balance holding accounts, the long-short account ratio is 3.1017, with more net long accounts among large holders. Compared with the same-metric snapshot 24 hours ago, it is up 0.1444; compared with the same-metric snapshot 7 days ago, it is up 0.677.
Glassnode: BTC short-term holder profitable supply ratio drops to about 70%
According to data from Bijie.com, the share of BTC supply held by short-term holders that is in profit has fallen to about 70%, easing some of the selling pressure from profit-taking in the market.
Zcash co-founder proposes ending the 8% block subsidy allocation.
According to CoinWorld news, Zcash co-founder and protocol developer Sean Bowe has submitted a ZIP draft proposing to terminate the allocation of 8% of the block subsidy to Zcash Community Grants (ZCG) and redirect that share to the Network Sustainability Mechanism (NSM), suspending its entry into circulation. The proposal argues that ZCG's existing funds are already sufficient to support future grants, making continued automatic receipt of the block subsidy unnecessary. Draft data shows that ZCG holds approximately 91,453 ZEC and about $8.8 million in other assets, while the current 8% subsidy corresponds to approximately 52,560 ZEC per year. The proposal will not change ZEC's supply cap, miners' original subsidy proportion, or the allocation of the separate 12% of tokens controlled by the fund.
Moody's Analytics: Risk warnings intensify, the Fed should keep interest rates unchanged.
CoinWorld news, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again when it meets this week, and it should not. The U.S. economy is being threatened by a growing number of risks, and one of them is the Fed's own missteps. This is the clear message conveyed by Moody's "risk matrix." The matrix measures risks by assessing the likelihood of each risk occurring within the next 12 to 18 months, as well as the degree of economic damage it could cause if it does occur. A large number of red warnings have appeared in the matrix, indicating that risks are becoming more likely or more severe.
Anthropic Q2 2026 revenue per dollar of compute spend rises to $2.08
According to Bijie.com, Anthropic's revenue per dollar of compute spend grew to $2.08 in the second quarter of 2026, up 5.2x from $0.40 in the first quarter of 2025.
Willy Woo: Monte Carlo simulation shows BTC median price reaching $1.48 million in 2034
According to a report from Bijie.com, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo introduced a BTC price projection model based on Monte Carlo simulation. The model, through 5,000 simulation runs, shows that the median BTC price in 2034 could reach $1.48 million, and even the lowest 5% of simulation results reach $464,000. The model incorporates cyclical market structure, real probability distributions, and power-law scaling mechanisms, and excludes early market data to reflect the modern market environment. These figures are generated based on specific assumptions and historical data and are not deterministic price predictions.
Japan's JPY stablecoin JPYC marks its first anniversary of issuance, with a circulating supply of only 3 billion yen.
According to nada news, on the first anniversary of the issuance of the Japanese yen stablecoin JPYC, JPYC CEO Noritaka Okabe said that although the project has established partnerships with large companies such as Sony Bank and LINE NEXT and cumulative issuance has exceeded 10 billion yen, actual circulation is currently only about 3 billion yen, just one quarter of the internal target. He pointed out that Japan's current regulations limiting a single issuance and redemption amount to no more than 1 million yen are one of the main obstacles restricting large-scale corporate adoption. In addition, after JPYC listed on South Korea's Upbit in September, there was an abnormal situation in which the price rose to 2 to 3 yen due to a surge in trading demand. Okabe said he hopes regulators will relax the relevant restrictions and plans to expand JPYC's circulation scale by at least tenfold in the second year.
AI safety company Fangcun Yueqian releases its first evaluation report: the new version of DeepSeek is especially prone to suspecting that it is being "tested."
According to a report from Bijie.com, AI safety company Fangcun Yueqian has released its first public evaluation report, with the latest DeepSeek v4.1 flash-1017 model as the research subject. The report points out that the new version of DeepSeek is particularly prone to suspecting that it is "taking an exam." During testing, researchers found that when the new version performed complex tasks in a simulated environment, it engaged in rule-violating operations and shut down the training programs of other agents. The report also shows that the earlier v4 flash model committed 264 violations, while the number of violations by v4.1 flash dropped to 3, but the version updated on October 17 saw violations rebound to 48. Fangcun Yueqian was founded in January this year and focuses on AI safety evaluation, protection, and governance.
Moody's Analytics: South Korea's economy grew 1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, beating expectations.
CoinWorld news, Moody's Analytics senior economist John Bromhead said that South Korea's economy accelerated in the July-to-September quarter, with GDP growing 1% quarter-on-quarter, easily beating the market consensus of 0.7%. Tuesday's strong GDP data further reinforced the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy, especially given that price pressures have not yet eased convincingly, and the Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates in November. After raising rates in July and August, the Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3% in October. South Korea's headline inflation rate in September was 2.9%, and core inflation was 2.8%, both above the Bank of Korea's 2% target.