Bitcoin stayed under pressure this week after the United States and Iran exchanged air strikes. Market sentiment worsened further after President Donald Trump said the memorandum of understanding and the ceasefire with Iran “is over.”
The uncertainty briefly pushed the world’s largest crypto asset close to $60,000 on Tuesday. By Thursday, however, it steadied at a little over $62,000.
Against this fragile backdrop, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin is trading in what he described as “no man’s land” based on the MVRV Pricing Bands. According to Martinez, BTC is currently positioned between the -0.5 and -1.0 MVRV bands, indicating the market does not present a clear valuation advantage at current prices. He identified the -1.0 MVRV Pricing Band, now at $49,867, as the level he would consider a major buy signal and a prime accumulation zone if Bitcoin declines that far.
In a separate analysis, Martinez also pointed to $63,000 as a major resistance level that the crypto asset has yet to overcome. Around 623,000 BTC were previously traded near this price, making it one of the largest resistance clusters on the chart. Many investors who bought around $63,000 could choose to sell once they return to breakeven, and potentially end up increasing selling pressure. Heightened global uncertainty could also encourage some market participants to reduce risk.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $63,000 and subsequently falls below $59,000, Martinez said on-chain transaction history identifies the next major support levels at $46,000, where roughly 115,000 BTC were transacted, and subsequently $37,870, where approximately 206,000 BTC previously changed hands.
Online conversations within the crypto community also picked up. Discussions about war across crypto-focused social media have climbed to their highest level since April after Trump’s fresh warning, according to Santiment. Mentions of terms such as “war,” “Iran,” and “ceasefire” spiked sharply across social platforms. Santiment said that the market could witness increased market volatility until traders gain more clarity.
However, the growing skepticism toward political announcements throughout 2026 may reduce the market impact compared with similar developments earlier this year. Even so, if tensions continue to rise, Bitcoin and altcoins could face short-term pressure, while an excessive surge in fear could eventually set the stage for a sharp relief rally as headlines ease.
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
中东局势反复叠加美伊停火协议破裂，BTC短期承压跌近6万美元，但随后企稳62,000美元附近，表明市场对地缘冲击的消化能力尚可。Ali Martinez指出BTC当前位于MVRV定价带的-0.5至-1.0之间，处于“无人区”——估值既不算便宜也不算贵，缺乏明确方向指引。
📊 市场影响
中短期看，$63,000成为关键阻力，若无法突破，BTC可能继续在60,000–63,000美元区间震荡。下方$49,867（-1.0 MVRV带）是Martinez关注的潜在抄底区域，但需地缘或宏观催化才能触发。
💡 操作建议
建议观望为主，避免在“无人区”重仓博弈。若BTC回踩$60,000以下并放量企稳，可轻仓试探；突破$63,000并站稳则考虑顺势加仓，严格设止损控制风险。
风险提示：
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