“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
Fidelity 最新报告指出，BTC 的“Yardstick”指标（市值与算力的 Z 分数）已跌入历史低位，同时多个情绪指标逼近“投降区”，暗示当前 BTC 可能被低估。但价格距历史高点仅回撤 50%，相比过去熊市底部（通常回撤 80%+）仍显“浅”，说明市场尚未达到极端恐慌。
📊 市场影响
短期来看，该报告可能提振部分长期持有者信心，但 10 月作为传统“Uptober”月份，若情绪指标继续恶化，BTC 或仍有下行风险。中期若算力持续增长而价格停滞，Yardstick 进一步走低反而可能吸引机构抄底资金入场。
💡 操作建议
建议交易者关注 BTC 在 $25,000–$27,000 区间的支撑力度，若跌破则可能触发更深回调。可参考 Yardstick 低于 -1 标准差时轻仓分批建仓，但务必设置严格止损（如 5%），并控制仓位不超过总资金 20%。当前市场情绪脆弱，避免追涨杀跌。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。