The bear cycle is heavily affecting altcoins as expected. With bitcoin (BTC) struggling to remain above $60,000, this group of cryptocurrencies is having it worse.
A report from the market analysis platform CryptoQuant revealed that about 40% of altcoins are currently trading around their all-time low (ATL). This dynamic reflects an extreme level of underperformance among most projects.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the extreme underperformance of altcoins reflects the harsh reality facing projects that chose to launch tokens. The analyst said he initially built the Percentage of Altcoins Near ATL chart to visualize coins trading below 25% of their all-time low, only to see that at least 40% of these assets are trading near their respective bottoms.
As the bear season progresses and BTC declines further, altcoins’ performance worsens. In fact, when BTC fell below $60,000 last month, the percentage of altcoins near their ATL climbed to 45%.
One of the major drivers of this underperformance is the low liquidity despite thousands of coins being created and added to the market daily. CoinMarketCap data shows that there are 53.5 million cryptocurrencies currently existing, with 60,000 new ones added every day. Unfortunately, the majority of these assets are doomed to fail because of the state of the market and a growing lack of liquidity.
“Without strong incoming liquidity, it’s easy to see why the majority of these cryptos are doomed to fail,” the analyst explained.
Darkfost says it is now essential for investors to be highly selective of the projects they choose to be exposed to. This is because the crypto market has changed, and only a few projects will survive the bear phase and stay afloat.
The analyst’s comments echo similar remarks CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju made in early December 2024 during the last bull cycle. At the time, the altcoin market sentiment was good, and multiple coins were skyrocketing to multi-year highs. Ju believed the altseason would not play out as investors expected because the sector was not seeing a notable inflow of fresh liquidity.
As Ju predicted, only a few assets recorded significant gains during that period and the bull phase as a whole; the lack of liquidity hampered the growth of other assets. Apparently, the low liquidity has intensified in this bear season, and most altcoins are performing even more poorly.
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
当前山寨币市场极度低迷，约40%的代币价格已接近历史最低点，反映出熊市对大多数项目的严重冲击，尤其是BTC在6万美金附近挣扎，进一步压制了市场情绪。
📊 市场影响
短期内，山寨币可能继续承压，资金持续向BTC和主流资产集中，弱势项目面临流动性枯竭风险。若BTC跌破6万美金支撑，山寨币或加速探底，极端行情下可能迎来超跌反弹机会。
💡 操作建议
建议投资者控制山寨币仓位，优先关注流动性强的龙头币种，避免追入接近ATL的弱势项目。可等待BTC企稳信号（如放量突破6.5万美金）后再考虑分批布局超跌优质标的，严格设置止损。
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