The bear cycle is heavily affecting altcoins as expected. With bitcoin (BTC) struggling to remain above $60,000, this group of cryptocurrencies is having it worse.
A report from the market analysis platform CryptoQuant revealed that about 40% of altcoins are currently trading around their all-time low (ATL). This dynamic reflects an extreme level of underperformance among most projects.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the extreme underperformance of altcoins reflects the harsh reality facing projects that chose to launch tokens. The analyst said he initially built the Percentage of Altcoins Near ATL chart to visualize coins trading below 25% of their all-time low, only to see that at least 40% of these assets are trading near their respective bottoms.
As the bear season progresses and BTC declines further, altcoins’ performance worsens. In fact, when BTC fell below $60,000 last month, the percentage of altcoins near their ATL climbed to 45%.
One of the major drivers of this underperformance is the low liquidity despite thousands of coins being created and added to the market daily. CoinMarketCap data shows that there are 53.5 million cryptocurrencies currently existing, with 60,000 new ones added every day. Unfortunately, the majority of these assets are doomed to fail because of the state of the market and a growing lack of liquidity.
“Without strong incoming liquidity, it’s easy to see why the majority of these cryptos are doomed to fail,” the analyst explained.
Darkfost says it is now essential for investors to be highly selective of the projects they choose to be exposed to. This is because the crypto market has changed, and only a few projects will survive the bear phase and stay afloat.
The analyst’s comments echo similar remarks CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju made in early December 2024 during the last bull cycle. At the time, the altcoin market sentiment was good, and multiple coins were skyrocketing to multi-year highs. Ju believed the altseason would not play out as investors expected because the sector was not seeing a notable inflow of fresh liquidity.
As Ju predicted, only a few assets recorded significant gains during that period and the bull phase as a whole; the lack of liquidity hampered the growth of other assets. Apparently, the low liquidity has intensified in this bear season, and most altcoins are performing even more poorly.
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
当前山寨币市场极度疲软，40%代币已跌至历史最低点附近，BTC低于6万美元进一步加剧了资金逃离。这轮熊市对山寨币的打击远超主流币，项目方发币后缺乏实际支撑的弱点被放大。
📊 市场影响
短期来看，山寨币可能继续承压，尤其缺乏流动性和应用场景的项目将面临进一步下探风险。若BTC无法企稳6万美元，山寨币的反弹力度将非常有限，市场情绪修复需要时间。
💡 操作建议
建议回避深度回调中的散户币种，优先关注市值靠前、有实际生态支撑的山寨币（如ETH、SOL等）。若BTC跌破5.8万美元，可考虑轻仓布局超跌反弹，但严格设置止损，避免盲目抄底。
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