Although it has rebounded by $5,000 since its July 1 low at under $58,000, bitcoin remains in a highly pressured market structure that has halted each major breakout attempt.
There are good reasons for that, of course, as multiple factors have aligned to keep it suppressed. Here are five of them.
The first reemerged yesterday when the US and Iran broke the ceasefire and initiated new attacks against each other in the Middle Eastern region. The actual threat came hours later when, during a NATO meeting, US President Donald Trump said he believes the memorandum of understanding between the two nations is over.
A new wave of attacks followed earlier this morning before Trump claimed, once again, that Iran wanted a peace deal ‘badly’ and had resumed contact. However, similar statements have been made multiple times in the past, but a deal is yet to be reached.
The second macro reason comes from the Federal Reserve, which continues to refuse to lower interest rates. Moreover, recent reports indicated that several Fed officials considered raising the rates in one of the next FOMC meetings. They justified this with the war’s fallout, as oil prices continue to rise and inflation is jumping in tandem. Similar moves tend to increase the pressure on risk-on assets, such as bitcoin and the altcoins.
Aside from the aforementioned macro reasons, the tighter landscape around bitcoin is not flourishing either. Perhaps the most painful one comes from Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The company that has consistently accumulated BTC over the last five years and enhanced its purchases in late 2024 sold twice in the past couple of months. The last one, announced earlier this week, was even more worrisome as it was for over 3,500 units.
The ETFs are the fourth overall reason. They lost over $8 billion from the total cumulative flows in just two months. Some weekly numbers set anti-records with over $1.5 billion leaving in just five trading days. Although they managed to turn green in three out of the last four business days, the demand still lacks, and BTC would need a major trend reversal to change its trajectory.
The last key factor that we will discuss in this article is the Coinbase Bitcoin Premiums Index. The metric measures the differen
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
地缘冲突反复升级，美国与伊朗的停火协议破裂再次打击市场情绪，BTC在7月低点反弹后仍受压制，多头信心不足。这类事件往往导致资金短期撤离风险资产，转向避险，BTC难以形成有效突破。
📊 市场影响
短期看，若冲突继续恶化，BTC可能再次测试58,000美元支撑位，反弹空间受限。中期需关注局势是否降温，一旦缓和，BTC有望重回65,000美元上方运行。
💡 操作建议
建议保持轻仓观望，避免在不确定性高时追涨杀跌。可设置严格止损，重点关注地缘消息面变化，等待局势明朗后再布局。
风险提示：
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