Crypto markets have had a positive weekend, holding on to and marginally improving gains made late last week.
The next seven days will see the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its last meeting, which could shed more light on the direction of monetary policy as inflation continues to climb.
Meanwhile, the US stock market capitalization topped $80 trillion, setting a new record, and now accounts for around 48% of global market cap.
“We expect another volatile week ahead as markets brace for earnings season,” said the Kobeissi Letter.
June S&P Global Services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data is due on Monday, painting a broader picture of economic activity. This report is followed on Tuesday by ADP Employment Change data.
Wednesday will see the FOMC minutes, the first for new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank held rates steady, but inflationary pressures from higher energy prices could prompt it to raise them.
“I think it’s going to be interesting to see how the discussion went around the table, how incrementally hawkish are they leaning,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments.
“That’s what investors and markets are going to be wondering: What is this new Fed chairman and updated (Fed policymaking body) looking for to decide the path of rates from here?”
Initial Jobless Claims data is due on Thursday, while full-time employment dropped by 514,000 in June to its lowest since December 2024. “The weakness in the US labor market is accelerating,” said Kobeissi.
1. June S&P Global Services PMI data – Monday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. June Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 5, 2026
Also this week, SpaceX (SPCX) is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index, and another quarterly earnings season will begin this month.
Crypto markets are holding gains this Monday morning in Asia, with total capitalization up 1.1% on the day to $2.26 trillion.
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
本周美联储会议纪要及PMI数据将主导市场情绪，若纪要偏鹰，可能压制加密资产短期反弹势头。
📊 市场影响
美国股市创80万亿美元新高，若风险资产情绪联动，BTC有望在宏观数据落地后获得支撑；但ADP就业数据若超预期强劲，可能加剧加息预期，对高波动资产形成压力。
💡 操作建议
建议在本周数据密集发布期间降低杠杆，重点关注FOMC纪要中对通胀措辞的变化，若释放鸽派信号可轻仓布局ETH等主流币的多头机会。
风险提示：
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