“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
Fidelity 最新报告指出，比特币的“Yardstick”指标（市值与算力的 Z 值）正逼近历史低位，已连续 83% 时间处于“低估”区间，同时多项情绪指标接近投降区域。当前 BTC 较历史高点下跌约 50%，但相比以往熊市周期底部仍属“较浅”回调，暗示市场可能尚未完全触底。
📊 市场影响
中短期来看，Yardstick 的低估信号通常领先价格底部 1-3 个月，但若情绪持续恶化（如矿工抛压加剧），BTC 可能再探 2.5 万-2.8 万美元区间。若 10 月历史季节性（传统“Uptober”）叠加 ETF 资金流入，或将形成阶段性底部，但反弹力度取决于宏观流动性改善。
💡 操作建议
建议观望 2.5 万-2.8 万美元区间能否形成放量支撑，再考虑分批建仓现货或配置低杠杆多单。若价格跌破 2.5 万美元，需警惕加速下跌至 2 万美元风险，可启用网格或趋势突破策略捕捉波动，但务必设置 5%-8% 止损。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。