Ethereum (ETH) is trading at nearly 65% below its all-time high, with attention around the asset at an almost yearly low, even as its largest network upgrade since The Merge is due within weeks.
But an analyst tracking the setup says the gap between weak social interest and steady on-chain usage is the kind of divergence that has often come right before sharp moves for the cryptocurrency.
In a July 9 post on X, pseudonymous analyst Wise Crypto noted that the Ethereum network has been processing roughly 450,000 active addresses despite social media discussion sitting near yearly lows.
According to them, the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade could become a major catalyst, considering that it could increase Ethereum’s gas limit by three times and cut transaction fees by about 78%. It has also been said that it could lift throughput to about 10,000 transactions per second.
“Major catalyst. Minimal attention,” the market watcher wrote, while naming $1,754 as the ETH level worth watching. A sustained move above that area, according to them, could open the way toward $2,440, while failure to hold support could send the world’s second-largest crypto asset back toward $880.
Looking at CoinGecko data at the time of writing, ETH was trading just a few dollars below Wise Crypto’s stated resistance level, having dipped slightly (about 1%) in 24 hours but still gaining nearly 7% during the past week and about 3% over 30 days.
That quiet backdrop is sitting alongside some unusual exchange data shared by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, who said that Binance’s 30-day ETH open interest change fell to -594,000 ETH earlier in the week, marking its deepest contraction since August 2024. Around the same time, ETH spot volume on OKX climbed to $2.09 billion, 49% higher than its best reading of the year, which was recorded on February 5.
According to Taha, the pairing is notable because a leverage flush alongside rising spot volumes probably means that speculators are leaving the market while spot buyers are continuing to stack ETH and not that there’s a broad retreat from the asset.
Ethereum has been rejected at $1,800 three times this week, but that didn’t stop Consensys co-founder Joseph Lubin from saying Wednesday that the “Summer of Ethereum Love is gaining steam,” pointing to newly launched steward groups like Ethlabs working alongside the Ethereum Foundation, and citing the networ
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
ETH当前价格较历史高点跌65%，社交热度创近一年新低，但链上活跃地址稳定在45万/天，这种冷热背离往往是变盘信号。Glamsterdam升级若如期落地，Gas上限提3倍、费用降78%，对ETH是实质性利好。
📊 市场影响
升级预期可能在短期推动ETH反弹，但当前低迷情绪下，市场需要实质落地才能触发大行情。中期看，费用降低将利好DeFi和L2生态，提升ETH基本面价值。
💡 操作建议
可关注ETH在升级前1-2周的走势，若出现放量突破信号可轻仓跟进，但需设好止损。建议分批建仓，避免追高，同时留意升级推迟或不及预期的风险。
风险提示：
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