“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
Fidelity 最新报告指出，比特币的“Yardstick”指标已逼近历史低位，多项情绪指标接近“投降区”，暗示当前 BTC 可能被低估。不过，与过去熊市底部相比，当前价格仅从高点回撤约50%，底部尚未完全确认。
📊 市场影响
短期来看，Fidelity 的权威背书可能提振部分机构信心，但情绪指标仍在低位，市场或继续震荡筑底。若10月历史季节性效应（“Uptober”）再现，可能迎来阶段性反弹，但需警惕宏观流动性收紧风险。
💡 操作建议
建议投资者关注 BTC 在 25000-27000 美元区间的支撑力度，若 Yardstick 持续低于 -1 标准差且情绪指标进一步恶化，可视为分批建仓的左侧信号。但需严格控制仓位，避免在底部未明确前重仓抄底。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。