Bitcoin extended its positive run last week with a minor 1% weekly gain, marking its fourth straight weekly advance for the first time since April. Even so, the rally showed signs of losing momentum after a sharp midweek reversal weakened buying pressure.
The cryptocurrency climbed to a weekly high of $67,000 on Tuesday before dropping 5% as short-term holders sold near their breakeven level. The decline reinforced resistance overhead and showed that buyers are still struggling to push Bitcoin beyond its recent trading range.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the short-term holder cost basis has stabilized near $68,500. The metric had gradually moved closer to spot prices over the past month. Analysts said this level has become a key resistance area that will likely require stronger demand for Bitcoin to break above it.
So far, that demand has remained limited despite recent ETF inflows. The report said institutional participation continues to weaken. Specifically, CME Bitcoin futures fell below $6 billion, while options reached a September 2023 low.
ETF flows also reflected that softer demand beneath the surface. Despite this, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million. However, they also saw $465.2 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday, while BlackRock’s IBIT turned net negative.
Another sign of softer institutional participation is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained below zero for more than 60 consecutive trading days. Bitfinex described current market conditions as a typical summer slowdown, with 30-day spot trading volumes at just 62.4% of their yearly average.
Beyond weaker market activity, broader economic conditions are adding uncertainty to Bitcoin’s outlook. Rising US diesel prices continue to pressure transport and production costs, raising the risk that inflation could remain elevated.
Meanwhile, higher inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path, while futures markets assign about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.
The report also noted that the US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, approaching a level that could pressure risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $63,000 and $68,500, awaiting stronger demand or fresh catalysts.
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
比特币连涨四周创4月来最长纪录，但上周仅微涨1%，且周中冲高至67000后回落5%，显示出多头动能明显衰减，短期持有者在成本线附近抛售，阻力正在加固。
📊 市场影响
短期持有者成本基础稳定在68500附近，成为关键阻力区，预计短期内BTC将继续在62000-68000区间震荡整理，突破需新的买盘催化剂。
💡 操作建议
建议在区间内高抛低吸为主，靠近68000附近注意减仓或设置止盈；若跌破62000支撑，需警惕进一步回调风险，控制仓位，避免追高。
风险提示：
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