Despite showing signs of short-term stabilization above a major support zone, Bitcoin’s downtrend might not be over yet. While momentum has improved on lower timeframes, the broader trend is still tilted to the downside, with price trading below key moving averages and facing heavy overhead resistance.
Meanwhile, on-chain data suggests that large holders may still be distributing coins, adding more fuel to a potential further decline.
The daily chart shows BTC trading around $64K after bouncing from the $60K support region. That area has once again attracted buyers and prevented a deeper breakdown, while the RSI has formed a higher low from oversold conditions (bullish divergence), signaling improving momentum after the recent sell-off.
Despite the recovery, the broader structure remains bearish. Bitcoin continues to trade beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are sloping downward and currently sit around the $72K region. This creates a significant dynamic resistance zone that aligns with a previous supply area, making it the first major hurdle if buyers extend the recovery.
Above that, a much stronger resistance cluster is located between $88K and $90K, while the major bearish invalidation level remains near $98K. As long as the price stays below these levels, the current rebound appears corrective rather than the beginning of a new impulsive uptrend. On the downside, holding the $60K support remains crucial. Losing this level could expose the next major demand zone around $55K.
The 4-hour timeframe paints a more constructive short-term picture. Bitcoin has been trading inside a broad descending channel over the past several weeks and recently rebounded after sweeping liquidity near the lower boundary around $58K.
It has reclaimed the $60K to $62K support area and is attempting to build a sequence of higher lows. The RSI has also recovered just above the 50 level after printing a bullish divergence near the recent bottom, suggesting that selling momentum has weakened in the short term.
However, the market is now approaching an important resistance band between $64K and $66K. This area coincides with the upper portion of the recent consolidation and sits just above the descending channel resistance. A rejection there would keep the broader bearish structure intact and could send BTC back toward the $60K support.
On the other hand, a successful breakout above $66K, especially if accompanied by strong volume, would improve the short-term outlook and increase the probability of a larger recovery toward the $72K to $74K resistance zone.
The Exchange Whale Ratio continues to provide a cautious signal. The 30-day exponential moving average of the metric remains elevated, even as Bitcoin is
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
BTC 在 $60K 区域获得支撑后反弹至 $64K，短期出现看涨背离信号，但日线仍受均线压制，大趋势依然偏空。
📊 市场影响
链上数据显示大户仍在派发，反弹上方 $66K–$68K 为密集阻力区，若无法放量突破，空头可能再度施压，短期震荡概率较高。
💡 操作建议
建议观望为主，短线反弹可轻仓参与，但需严格设好止损（如 $62K 下方），避免追高。关注 $60K 支撑有效性，跌破则风险加剧。
风险提示：
该资讯来源于公开渠道，仅供参考。Traceless 无痕智盈平台不对此信息准确性做任何保证。