Bitcoin extended its positive run last week with a minor 1% weekly gain, marking its fourth straight weekly advance for the first time since April. Even so, the rally showed signs of losing momentum after a sharp midweek reversal weakened buying pressure.
The cryptocurrency climbed to a weekly high of $67,000 on Tuesday before dropping 5% as short-term holders sold near their breakeven level. The decline reinforced resistance overhead and showed that buyers are still struggling to push Bitcoin beyond its recent trading range.
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the short-term holder cost basis has stabilized near $68,500. The metric had gradually moved closer to spot prices over the past month. Analysts said this level has become a key resistance area that will likely require stronger demand for Bitcoin to break above it.
So far, that demand has remained limited despite recent ETF inflows. The report said institutional participation continues to weaken. Specifically, CME Bitcoin futures fell below $6 billion, while options reached a September 2023 low.
ETF flows also reflected that softer demand beneath the surface. Despite this, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million. However, they also saw $465.2 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday, while BlackRock’s IBIT turned net negative.
Another sign of softer institutional participation is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained below zero for more than 60 consecutive trading days. Bitfinex described current market conditions as a typical summer slowdown, with 30-day spot trading volumes at just 62.4% of their yearly average.
Beyond weaker market activity, broader economic conditions are adding uncertainty to Bitcoin’s outlook. Rising US diesel prices continue to pressure transport and production costs, raising the risk that inflation could remain elevated.
Meanwhile, higher inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path, while futures markets assign about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.
The report also noted that the US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, approaching a level that could pressure risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $63,000 and $68,500, awaiting stronger demand or fresh catalysts.
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
比特币连续四周上涨后显露出疲态，$67,000 遇阻回落，短期持有者成本线 $68,500 成为关键阻力，多头暂时无力突破。
📊 市场影响
短期买方动能减弱，$68,500 阻力区需要量能配合才能有效突破；若持续缩量，比特币可能回踩 $63,000-$64,000 支撑区间。
💡 操作建议
建议暂缓追多，关注 $68,500 能否放量站稳；短线交易者可围绕 $64,000-$67,000 区间高抛低吸，严格止损。
风险提示：
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