“BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory,” stated Fidelity in its Q3 Signals Report on Tuesday.
However, bitcoin is currently trading around 50% below its all-time high, which is still shallow compared to previous bear market bottoms.
The Yardstick metric compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to network hashrate via a normalized Z-score, with values below -1 standard deviation indicating undervaluation.
It essentially measures whether the asset is trading at a fair price relative to the “energy cost” of its security. Low or negative readings signal undervaluation or cheap bitcoin, while high readings signal overvaluation and expensive BTC. The metric has been firmly in the “undervalued” zone for 83% of the past 92 days.
Bitcoin miners have faced increasing pressure as prices have fallen, yet the total hash rate has only fallen around 22% from its peak, “highlighting miner resilience.”
“As a result, the Yardstick is currently hovering near historic lows. This suggests BTC may be trading at a substantial discount relative to the energy securing the network.”
Two signals we’re watching are approaching significant levels.
BTC’s Yardstick is hovering near historic lows, while several sentiment indicators are approaching capitulation territory.
Explore the data in our Q3 2026 Signals Report… pic.twitter.com/XsliCQG9Lx
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) July 28, 2026
This has likely happened because this cycle has lower price volatility than previous ones, and the mining industry has matured, with miners now managing energy costs more efficiently, said Fidelity.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms, which lasted almost 300 days in previous cycles.
“This bear market has experienced 203 days to date, suggesting October 2026 may represent a key timeframe for investors focused on cycle dynamics.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, said, “Bitcoin is approaching a historically important zone.” BTC’s long-term holder to short-term holder realized cap ratio has reached 3.9, approaching the level above 4 that preceded major price bottoms in previous cycles.
The metric shows realized capital increasingly concentrated among long-term holders with strong conviction, while short-term speculative participation remains weak, indicating an advanced accumulation phase.
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
Fidelity最新报告指出，比特币的Yardstick指标正接近历史低位，同时多项情绪指标已进入恐慌性抛售区间，暗示BTC当前可能被低估。不过，当前价格距历史高点仅回撤约50%，相比以往熊市底部仍显“浅”，说明市场尚未完全触底。
📊 市场影响
Yardstick处于-1标准差以下，表明BTC相对算力成本被低估，中短期可能吸引价值型资金入场。但若宏观情绪持续恶化（如美联储加息预期升温），价格仍有下探空间，需关注10月是否成为历史性底部窗口。
💡 操作建议
建议激进投资者在Yardstick持续低于-1时轻仓布局现货，保守者等待情绪指标进一步恶化至极端恐慌后再入场。严格设置止损，避免左侧重仓。
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