Crypto markets have had a positive weekend, holding on to and marginally improving gains made late last week.
The next seven days will see the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its last meeting, which could shed more light on the direction of monetary policy as inflation continues to climb.
Meanwhile, the US stock market capitalization topped $80 trillion, setting a new record, and now accounts for around 48% of global market cap.
“We expect another volatile week ahead as markets brace for earnings season,” said the Kobeissi Letter.
June S&P Global Services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data is due on Monday, painting a broader picture of economic activity. This report is followed on Tuesday by ADP Employment Change data.
Wednesday will see the FOMC minutes, the first for new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank held rates steady, but inflationary pressures from higher energy prices could prompt it to raise them.
“I think it’s going to be interesting to see how the discussion went around the table, how incrementally hawkish are they leaning,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments.
“That’s what investors and markets are going to be wondering: What is this new Fed chairman and updated (Fed policymaking body) looking for to decide the path of rates from here?”
Initial Jobless Claims data is due on Thursday, while full-time employment dropped by 514,000 in June to its lowest since December 2024. “The weakness in the US labor market is accelerating,” said Kobeissi.
1. June S&P Global Services PMI data – Monday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. June Existing Home Sales data – Thursday
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 5, 2026
Also this week, SpaceX (SPCX) is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index, and another quarterly earnings season will begin this month.
Crypto markets are holding gains this Monday morning in Asia, with total capitalization up 1.1% on the day to $2.26 trillion.
小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
本周美联储会议纪要、PMI和服务业数据密集发布，通胀高企背景下市场对货币政策转向预期敏感，加密市场短期波动风险上升。
📊 市场影响
美股创新高提振风险偏好，但若纪要偏鹰（暗示加息或缩表），BTC和ETH可能承压回调至短期支撑位；反之若释放鸽派信号，有望推动反弹。PMI和就业数据若走弱，将强化“衰退交易”，利空风险资产。
💡 操作建议
建议控制仓位，避免在数据发布前重仓追涨。可关注BTC在29000-29500 USDT区间的支撑强度，若跌破可考虑减仓或设止损。短线交易者待消息落地后再入场。
风险提示：
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