3小时前
· CryptoPotato
Analyst: Bitcoin Stuck Near $65K Because Capital Is Flowing to AI
Bitcoin is stuck near $65,000, and trader Wise Crypto thinks AI spending is a big part of why.
The OG crypto poked above $66,000 earlier this week before losing steam, and the pattern points to money chasing AI stocks instead of crypto while inflation and bond yields keep pressure on risk assets.
Wise Crypto laid out the case on X Thursday, <a href="https://x.com/i/status/2080136812253839705" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">noting</a> that while spot Bitcoin ETFs have had seven consecutive days of inflows that have raked in just under $1 billion, the number was a small one next to the $6.9 billion that left those same funds in May and June.
Meanwhile, Big Tech is spending somewhere between $190 billion and $205 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with Nvidia’s data center revenue up 92% year over year, and AI-linked stocks have climbed roughly 69% since January. Bitcoin, over that same stretch, is down about 25%.
“Capital is flowing to AI, not crypto,” Wise Crypto wrote, pointing to two-year Treasury yields near 4.3% and ten-year yields near 4.6% as the forces keeping the dollar strong and investors cautious on risk assets.
The price data backs up the stall, as BTC was trading around $65,400 at the time of writing, down 0.6% on the day, after swinging between about $65,300 and $66,300 in the last 24 hours and between $62,500 and $66,900 over the past week. It is still up close to 5% across 30 days but sits roughly 45% below its all-time-high near $126,000 from last October.
“BTC needs lower inflation, falling yields & stronger demand to break $60K-$70K range,” claimed Wise Crypto.
Another market watcher, Ted Pillows, writing in his Thursday market report, <a href="https://x.com/i/status/2080195997133668864" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">pointed</a> to Brent crude being near $94 a barrel after another round of US-Iran strikes, along with a ten-year TIPS real yield of about 2.31%, a post-pandemic high, as the direct drag on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin right now.
“I’d rather watch $64,000 get defended than chase a run back toward $66,500,” he said.
Michaël van de Poppe has said Bitcoin has already reached its target area, and that holding above the 21-day moving average keeps the door open for near-term gains, with $68,000 marking the next resistance zone and a break above it potentially opening a run to $73,000.
Fellow analyst Axel Adler noted that ETFs have taken in $439 million so far this week, while the so-called Coinbase discount, running for 78 days now, has started to narrow.
Further out, EGRAG CRYPTO <a href="https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-could-rally-to-173k-if-this-pattern-plays-out-analyst/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">flagged</a> a developing double bottom pattern that would need a weekly close above $83,000 to gain traction, with $173,000 the eventual target if the setup plays out, though a weekly close below roughly $51,000 would invalidate it.
A similar reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300 was pointed t