Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland says the macro backdrop that punished digital currencies for four straight years is finally turning, pointing to patterns that came before crypto’s two biggest bull runs.
In a pair of posts on X, he argued that the market is entering a two- to three-year stretch of what he calls “max opportunity,” with risk appetite moving back toward crypto for the first time since 2016 and 2020.
Hyland’s case rests on comparing three stretches he labels macro risk bear markets: 2014 to 2016, 2018 to 2020, and 2022 through 2026. In each of them, he says, crypto performed poorly while the wider risk backdrop stayed hostile, only for conditions to flip and set off the sector’s strongest runs. He’s now betting the current cycle is following the same script.
“Macro-Risk is now exiting the Bear Market for the first time since Mid-2016 & Mid-2020,” he wrote, adding that this kind of setup produced “max opportunity for the long term” both previous times it showed up.
He also pointed to two chart signals he sees as confirmation. Bitcoin dominance just posted a death cross for the first time since 2016 and 2020, which he treats as an early marker of the shift. He also expects altcoin dominance to follow with a golden cross this fall, something that he says would repeat what happened in those earlier cycles.
According to the market watcher, his own macro risk ratios turned at the same points in 2016 and 2020, and are turning again now, which is why he’s calling the next two to three years “the most optimal time” for crypto. However, his forecast should be taken as a market thesis and not a certainty, especially since crypto cycles have also historically been influenced by liquidity, investor sentiment, and broader economic conditions.
Hyland’s call landed with Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $63,000 after earlier hitting a two-week high above $64,000, even after Strategy sold 3,588 BTC on Monday to fund dividends.
Analytics firm Swissblock described the price action as showing “signs of stabilization,” although it cautioned that a genuine recovery still needs buyers to keep showing up.
Elsewhere, analyst Credible Crypto has argued that altcoins trading 80% to 90% below their highs could outperform BTC if sentiment turns, pointing to long-term holders now controlling close to 80% of the flagship cryptocurrency’s supply. On Ethereum, trader Michaël van de Poppe 📌 推荐交易所
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小靓分析：
🦊 小靓解读
分析师Matthew Hyland认为，2022-2026年的宏观风险熊市即将结束，市场正进入类似2016和2020年的“最大机会”期，预计未来2-3年加密资产将迎来显著上涨。这一观点基于历史周期对比，暗示当前宏观环境正在转向利好风险资产。
📊 市场影响
若宏观风险偏好确实回暖，比特币等主流币可能开启新一轮中期上涨，短期波动或加剧但趋势偏多。历史规律显示，这类转折点常伴随资金从避险资产回流加密市场，对2026年下半年行情形成支撑。
💡 操作建议
建议关注宏观数据（如美联储政策、美元指数）变化，在风险偏好明确转暖时逐步布局现货，避免追高。可结合波动率指标（如BTC 30日均线）设定分批建仓策略，控制仓位在可承受范围内。
风险提示：
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