The analyst who first correctly predicted the September rate hike: The Fed will hold steady in October and may hike by 50 basis points in December. He warned that the two paths will lead to drastically different interest rate trajectories next year—if it chooses a 50 basis point hike, it will prompt the Fed to pause further tightening in early next year; if it hikes by only 25 basis points, the likelihood of another rate hike in the first quarter of next year will rise significantly. Data Fed Forex · 2026-10-15 15:42

🦊 Nova's Take This analyst nailed the September call, and now sees the Fed holding in October before a possible 50bp hike in December — the size of that move, not the move itself, is what really matters for 2027 rate expectations. A 50bp hike likely ends the cycle early next year, while a 25bp hike keeps another hike live in Q1. 📊 Market Impact A hawkish 50bp path pressures risk assets short-term but signals a clearer peak, which historically front-loads a bottom for crypto. A softer 25bp hike keeps uncertainty alive, capping Bitcoin's upside near range highs while rate-cut hopes stay deferred. 💡 Trading Advice Trade the reaction, not the prediction — wait for the December decision before sizing up. If BTC holds above its range low on hawkish news, that's a signal of underlying strength; if it breaks down, keep leverage low and dry powder ready. *Not financial advice — manage your risk.* 🦊