17分钟前
· Decrypt
Bitcoin Stalls as Ethereum Flashes Worst Weekly Signal in Years: Analysis
The crypto market enters the second week of July in rough shape.
Bitcoin is holding on, but just barely, in the low $60,000s after briefly touching 21-month lows under $58,000 last week. Ethereum is below $1,750, down around 4% on the day, and more than 30% in the last year. The broader market is down, of course, and altcoins are down harder.
The total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH shed 30% since January. Crypto IPOs—Gemini, Bullish, BitGo—have imploded since their debut.
The mood is, understandably, grim.
But grim moods have a long history of being wrong at exactly the wrong time. Every major Bitcoin bear cycle since 2009 has ended with a flush, an extreme fear reading, and a moment where the obvious trade looked like going short.
Bitcoin has now been through four such cycles, and in nearly every case, a pre-halving compression phase—where price grinds lower and sentiment deteriorates before the next supply shock—preceded the next leg up. The next halving—when mining rewards, and therefore the supply of newly minted Bitcoin, are cut by 50%—is roughly <a href="https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2028-04-10-12-00-00" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 bJsyml">>21 months away,</a> which historically is when accumulation starts making uncomfortable sense.
The difference this cycle? Crypto is now mainstream.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/03/finally-usd221-million-flow-into-bitcoin-etfs-ending-a-painful-10-day-outflow-streak" target="_blank" class="sc-adb616fe-0 bJsyml" rel="nofollow">Spot Bitcoin ETFs</a>, institutional balance sheets, formal accounting standards changes, and a legislative framework for digital assets have all arrived since the last halving. Bitcoin now has a fundamentally different institutional status than it did when BTC was a niche hobby. That doesn't eliminate volatility—it just means the players in this bear market are wearing different suits than last time. Whether that speeds up or delays the bottom is an open question. The charts, for now, have their answer.
Bitcoin price: optimism with an asterisk
Bitcoin opened the week at $63,587, hit a high of $64,657, then closed lower, meaning that the bulls showed up, tried to push through, and failed. Bitcoin is trading hands at $61,749, down 2.89% in the week.
It’s important to note that BTC fell to $58,035 just days ago—a 21-month low—before bouncing.
The resistance zone that stopped the spike is exactly the one everyone was watching. The $64–65K area has been acting as a ceiling since early June, and this week's candle barely kissed it before retreating. On <a href="https://myriad.markets/markets/btc-next-move-pump-to-84k-or-dump-to-55k-3d262902-135d-416e-90bc-8e80233f341e" target="_blank" rel="nofollow external noopener" class="sc-adb616fe-0 bJsyml">>Myriad</a>, a prediction market developed by <i>Decrypt</i>’s parent company Dastan, traders are placing nearly 73% odds that Bitcoin touches $55,